Analysts predict that crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and upcoming inflation data will be the primary drivers of the Indian stock market this week, alongside foreign investor activity and domestic quarterly earnings.
US President Donald Trump is expected to sign the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 later on Friday (local time). A White House official confirmed the development to ANI without revealing further details.
The US House of Representatives has advanced a bill that would empower President Donald Trump to impose 100 per cent tariffs on countries, including India, that purchase oil and gas from Russia, and also extend sanctions on Iran. The legislation, which previously passed the Senate, aims to curb Russia's energy revenue amidst the Ukraine conflict.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced significant declines in early trade, driven by soaring crude oil prices amidst escalating tensions in West Asia, coupled with weak global market trends and foreign fund outflows.
Analysts predict that inflation data, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and crude oil price trends will be the primary factors influencing the movement of Indian stock markets. Geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran deal, and foreign investor activity will also play a crucial role.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 20,974 crore from Indian equities in September, driven by global uncertainties, higher US interest rates and bond yields, elevated crude oil prices, and a weakening rupee.
Gwadar is viewed as a critical pearl in China's maritime strategy as it would give a permanent logistical footprint near an important choke point - the Strait of Hormuz and the oil rich Persian Gulf, explains Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
US President Donald Trump has expressed strong support for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC), citing the necessity to move energy infrastructure away from Iranian checkpoints following attacks in West Asia. He made these remarks during a multilateral meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council at the UN General Assembly, emphasising the corridor's role in overcoming regional challenges.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit the United States from September 23 to 25 for summit talks with US President Donald Trump, with discussions expected to cover critical economic and trade issues, including AI, and the recently signed US sanctions law targeting countries buying Russian oil and gas.
Top US and Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, held "candid, in-depth and constructive" talks in New York on economic and trade issues, with a specific focus on artificial intelligence. These discussions precede Chinese President Xi Jinping's anticipated visit to Washington and occur amidst new US sanctions targeting countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, and the US unveiling an "AI Force."
US lawmakers are racing to amend the Russia sanctions bill before recess. One amendment specifically names India, China, and other countries as potential targets for 100% tariffs due to their oil trade with Russia. Another significant amendment proposes to scrap the tariff section entirely, while others address presidential waiver powers and aid to Ukraine.
Indian-American Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi voted in favour of a Russia sanctions act in the US House, diverging from his Democratic party and other Indian-American lawmakers. The bill, which passed, imposes tariffs on Russian oil and gas buyers, potentially impacting India and China, and exempts US uranium purchases from Russia.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has highlighted the risks posed by the 'weaponisation' of resources and strategic sea routes, urging India to achieve greater self-reliance in energy to mitigate vulnerabilities to overseas supplies and geopolitical tensions.
The bill, introduced on Thursday, was conceived by Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal and late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and has the support of over 60 lawmakers.
Despite decades of efforts towards energy transition, oil will remain the critical energy source for all nations for some decades. We can hope for peace opening the Strait of Hormuz, but must prepare for war closing it, points out former foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed mixed on Friday. While a drop in crude oil prices offered some relief, weakness in IT stocks and several Tata Group counters, including a significant dip in Tata Chemicals and ongoing boardroom issues at Tata Sons, limited a broader market recovery.
Pakistan's government is exploring measures, including potential smart lockdowns and austerity, to reduce petroleum consumption. This comes after recent fuel price hikes driven by rising global oil prices and West Asia tensions, which have also raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. The government is also implementing a fuel relief scheme and faces public pressure over the price increases.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a second consecutive session, with the Sensex closing 736 points higher, driven by a global equity rally and a significant drop in crude oil prices following the finalisation of a peace deal between the US and Iran to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day decline in eight weeks, settling at 94.83 per dollar, primarily due to escalating crude oil prices and persistent risk-off sentiment driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and limited foreign inflows.
It is important to understand that the rupee's appreciation, driven by the 2013 special swap scheme, reduced India's import costs for petroleum, oil, and gold, points out Dr Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-Convenor, Swadeshi Jagaran Manch.
Petrol pump dealers seek exemption from the proposed 5 UPI charge on fuel purchases above 2,000, citing pressure on their margins.
India's wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) increased to 9.92 per cent in August, up from 9.78 per cent in July, primarily due to rising prices across food, manufactured items, and fuel and power sectors.
Moody's Ratings has sharply increased India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026-27 to 7 per cent, making it the fastest among G20 economies, driven by economic resilience despite the Middle East conflict. However, the agency flagged significant inflation risks stemming from elevated oil prices and potential El Nino disruptions.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1 per cent for the third consecutive day, driven by a sharp spike in crude oil prices and significant selling in bank stocks, with Brent crude jumping to USD 95.27 per barrel.
The US Senate has overwhelmingly approved a bill, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which aims to punish Russia and its major petroleum product buyers, including China and India. The legislation allows the US President to impose 100 per cent tariffs on goods from the top five importers of Russian oil and gas, and also extends sanctions on Iran's energy sector. The bill, championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, now moves to the House of Representatives for further approval.
State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved the development of a 1.75 million tonnes (mt) strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) in Mangaluru, a project deemed of national importance, with plans for broad commercial utilisation.
India's exports increased by 15.5 per cent to USD 40.41 billion in June, but the trade deficit significantly widened to a record USD 30.43 billion due to a 31 per cent surge in imports.
A government adviser has called for India to reintroduce a petrol variant with a lower ethanol blend, such as E10, alongside the current E20 fuel. This move aims to protect millions of older vehicles, particularly two-wheelers, which may experience performance issues and damage from the higher 20 per cent ethanol blend.
On the 25th anniversary of that world-changing morning in New York, it is also for the rest of to reflect. Not only on those who were killed but also on why the event happened and what led to it and what came after it, asserts Aakar Patel.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
A tripartite pact -- amid the promise of removing AFSPA from almost all of the North East -- revives hydrocarbon exploration along the Assam-Nagaland border after decades of dormancy.
Economists widely anticipate the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the repo rate by 50 basis points, likely split between the October and December meetings, as retail inflation is projected to peak at 6.1 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding the RBI's tolerance limit.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant downturn as escalating tensions in West Asia led to a sharp surge in crude oil prices, coupled with fresh foreign fund outflows and a weakening rupee.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Saturday criticised the United States over its stance on Russian oil, claiming Washington was now "begging" countries across the globe, including India, to purchase Russian crude.
India has become a significant supplier of gasoline to Russia, with Indian refiners providing 1 million barrels in the last two months, as Ukrainian drone attacks severely disrupt Russia's domestic fuel production.
Fighting in Yemen has intensified as Houthi rebels advance on strategic government-held areas like Marib and Taiz, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to respond. The conflict is also linked to wider US-Iran tensions affecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with former US President Trump commenting on the situation.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
One of the important topics of discussion between the two leaders is expected to be the Northern Sea Route and the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New Delhi for talks focusing on the West Asia situation, bilateral relations, and BRICS cooperation. The meeting, Pezeshkian's first visit to India as president, comes amidst heightened tensions in West Asia due to new US sanctions on Iran and concerns over global oil supplies from the Strait of Hormuz. Both leaders emphasised regional stability and economic resilience.
